Bigapple's 2012 Mock Draft (Work In Progress)

[bigapple]

I will be adding detail as I get through my research.  I will add the Giants and Patriots when their draft order becomes final.

Feel free to start your own thread or comment in mine.

Team	Record	SOS
1. Colts	2-14	.539

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 235

Whether Peyton Manning ever takes another NFL snap is to be seen.  But the start of another oh so promising career is on the horizon.  There is little doubt in my mind that the Colts are probably already talking long term contract with Andrew Luck and will use the $28 million roster bonus that is due Peyton Manning on March 8th to sign him. 

2. Rams

2-14

.590

Matt Kalil,  OT,  University of Southern California Height: 6-7. Weight: 295 Looking over this Rams squad I really don't see a whole heck of a lot to get excited about.  The obvious, you have a super star stud RB in Steven Jackson. I can see this pick going one of two ways.  You take Matt Kalil and look to solidify an offensive line that gave up 55 sacks.  That sounds pretty safe.  The other route would be to trade down a little and look to tab another OT and hopefully add an offensive weapon with a later pick.  The Rams used their 3rd and 4th round picks last year on WR's Austin Pettis and Greg Salas.  When one out of every 3 passes is targeted for Brandon Lloyd, I think the message becomes clear that they need more play makers on this offense.  Steven Jackson is not getting younger.  Trent Richardson proved week in and week out that he could play against top SEC defenses.  Picking him here would be a bit of a surprise, but a good running back has a two pronged approach.  He can catch the ball out of the back field, making the Safeties and linebackers have to pay attention to where he is on the field and also maintaining the ability to run should Jackson have another year of sub-par health.  I think the Rams build a stronger O-line and take Kalil. 3. Vikings    3-13 .559 Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU Height: 6-1. Weight: 185 This is where the draft will get interesting.  There are a number of moves the Vikings could make at this point and plenty of things to take into consideration.  Christian Ponder is proving to be a capable QB, possibly able to move into the Eli Manning type of success over the next couple of years, not always pretty, but definitely capable of winning a game.  His ability to dodge the rush is key and showed a weakness with the Vikings O-Line.  With AP's knee injury the Vikings will have to take into account that history shows this injury takes at least a year to get back to health.  From what I have read, they are saying that he will be ready to go to start the year, but that few have performed to the level they had prior to this injury until the second year back.  Toby Gerhart has proven he can play and produce.  The receiving corp of this team is probably adequate with Harvin and Shiancoe, Blackmon maybe here, doubt it.  There are character issues here and there was one other guy that played here once that left a pretty bad taste in managements mouth.  So question No.1 is do they need a RB.  Question 2. is if Matt Kalil falls to the 3rd pick, nothing else matters because you take him.  That said, there are other nice OT in this draft, and a couple possibly via free agency.  As we know in drafting teams have a longer term plan with where they want to be, and we don't get that side prior to the draft.  We generally get the media's side of best player available and that is who goes.  I think the Vikings look at their division and realize that they need to make a move on defense to defend the high powered offenses they face with Detroit and Green Bay, not to mention the rest of the league.  So I am going to say that Morris Claiborne is the pick here.  Percy Harvin will be looked at to fill a bit of the void should AP not get back to full strength.  Having Claiborne to return kicks and also pick up a CB position will lighten the load on Harvin.  Not to mention you grab a solid CB in a division that makes you have to have 2-3 capable CB's.    4. Browns    4-12 .531 Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama Height: 5-11. Weight: 224 Again we look at the team and look at what they need to compete in their division.  This team needs a healthy running back that can carry a good portion of the offense on his back and keep the defenses honest.  When you play in the AFC North and the defenses you face, you have to be able to run the ball.  Also, facing three teams that can pass relatively well, you have to be able to control the clock.  RG3 will probably be the a common picks amongst mockers that think Colt McCoy is not going to cut it.  There are two things that have to be taken into consideration and that is Peyton Hillis's health this year and also Colt is only a 2nd year guy.  Most NFL QB's go through their sophomore slump and look horrible.  I don't think Colt will ever be mistaken for Marino, Elway or Favre, but I do think you can get a QB that can play as well as Flacco or Dalton and keep you in a lot of games.  Greg Little and Josh Cribbs are OK receivers and I think Mohamed Massaquoi can still produce, provided Colt can get to his second or third progression.  I think TE is also a position the Browns need to bring into the offense to make this all work.  Green Bay's best years have been when they have a good running game teamed with a good TE that open up the receivers to 1-on-1's.  Trent Richardson brings everything I think you could ask for to round out this offense.  This defense can handle it's own. The interesting part.  I do think Holmgren goes for a QB and the guy that I think he may like, and complete speculation on my part, but I think you have to appreciate what you see in Nick Foles.  He has that NFL QB body at 6-4 240, Big Ben is 6-5 241 as listed at ESPN. He also doesn't come with all of the fan fair you would get from drafting a RG3.  The Browns will also look to draft a WR, I think Blackmon over Richardson is a mistake for the Browns.  5. Bucs    4-12 .551 Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St Height: 6-1. Weight: 211 I really have had a tough time trying to figure out what Tampa will do here.  Tampa really needs a play maker on offense and I think they can get it with Blackmon here.  They also need to be able to get better on the defensive front, and I am not sure if Haynesworth is the answer or not.  At 30 years old and who he has been the last couple of years there is probably a slim chance of that.  So my thinking kept me bouncing between Brockers from LSU or maybe Coples, but I lean more towards Brockers if not Blackmon.  Tampa faces the toughest QB's any one division can offer with Brees, Ryan and Newton, getting some pressure up the middle on those guys is key to stopping them. There are concerns I have about Blackmon, but talent wise, I don't think there has been a better ball catcher than Blackmon.  This guy catches anything that is thrown his way and then some.    Tampa improves either way with a stud player.  6. Redskins    5-11 .477 Robert Griffin, QB, Baylor Height: 6-2. Weight: 220 The Redskins under Mike Shanahan have been a team that can't get an identity.  Going into the bye week in 2011 the Redskins sat at 3-1 only to end the season on a 2-10 skid.  To me it looked like week in and week out that Washington had the play makers to be able to hang tough in ball games, but just didn't have the coaching edge to make key adjustments to be able to finish and put up a W. Here is an opportunity for Dan Snyder to go Dan Snyder again and load up the roster full of talent and see what they can do.  Drafting Robert Griffin here is a no brainer.  But the Redskins need to be the front runners in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes if they are going to compete in the NFC East.  Not to mention, RG3 couldn't get a better teacher!  Looking at the free agent market, you may find another 'dream team' escapade put together this year with Manning and any assortment of free agent WR's that includes Reggie Wayne.  The defense is in pretty good shape.  Prior to December the defense had only given up 30+ points to Carolina in a game that saw the Redskin's turn the ball over 3 times.  With this running game and defense, and an instant passing game with Manning and a key WR pick up, this could be a quick fix contender.  I am guessing here that as Griffin goes through the combine or other work outs that teams will begin to pick away at him and turn him into a lower pick.  Thus, falling to the Redskins here at 6.  Griffin has the 'it' factor and then some with his talent.   But I think the first five teams have their QB's and will stick with them.  Plenty of people will wonder if this guy is the next highly athletic QB to win the Heisman and go on to the NFL scrap heap.  The risk is worth the reward.  The Redskins are also the type of team that could botch the entire draft and reach for Alshon Jeffery, you read it here first!! 7. Jaguars    5-11 .500 8 Panthers    6-10 .504 8. Dolphins    6-10 .504 10. Bills    6-10 .520 11. Chiefs    7-9 .512 11. Seahawks    7-9 .512 13. Cardinals    8-8 .469 14. Cowboys    8-8 .473 15. Eagles    8-8 .488 16. Jets    8-8 .500 17. Raiders-x    8-8 .504 18. Chargers    8-8 .516 19. Bears    8-8 .527 20. Titans    9-7 .563 21. Bengals    9-7 .492 22. Falcons-y    10-6 .480 23. Lions    10-6 .535 24. Steeler    12-4 .492 25. Broncos    8-8 .520 26. Texans    10-6 .516 27. Saints-z    13-3 .508 28. Packers    15-1 .508 29. Ravens    12-4 .477 30. 49ers    13-3 .449

[bigapple]

I will be adding detail as I get through my research.  I will add the Giants and Patriots when their draft order becomes final.

Feel free to start your own thread or comment in mine.

Team	Record	SOS
1. Colts	2-14	.539

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 235

Whether Peyton Manning ever takes another NFL snap is to be seen.  But the start of another oh so promising career is on the horizon.  There is little doubt in my mind that the Colts are probably already talking long term contract with Andrew Luck and will use the $28 million roster bonus that is due Peyton Manning on March 8th to sign him. 

2. Rams

2-14

.590

Matt Kalil,  OT,  University of Southern California Height: 6-7. Weight: 295 Looking over this Rams squad I really don't see a whole heck of a lot to get excited about.  The obvious, you have a super star stud RB in Steven Jackson.  Sam Bradford looked all but ordinary in his second year, battling injuries and running for his life.  Last years No. 1 pick Robert Quinn was productively non-existant on defense.  In 2010, the Rams took Bradford No. 1 over all, which also left them with the 33rd pick they used for O-lineman Rodger Saffold.  In 2009 the Rams used the 2nd over all pick to select OT Jason Smith.  Simply put the Rams need to get better production out of these high picks if they don't want to become the Bengals of the 2010's.  Enter Jeff Fisher and hopefully this team avoids the dubious Bungal's tag. I can see this pick going one of two ways.  You take Matt Kalil and look to solidify an offensive line that gave up 55 sacks.  That sounds pretty safe.  The other route would be to trade down a little and look to tab another OT and hopefully add an offensive weapon with a later pick.  The Rams used their 3rd and 4th round picks last year on WR's Austin Pettis and Greg Salas.  When one out of every 3 passes is targeted for Brandon Lloyd, I think the message becomes clear that they need more play makers on this offense.  Steven Jackson is not getting younger.  Trent Richardson proved week in and week out that he could play against top SEC defenses.  Picking him here would be a bit of a surprise, but a good running back has a two pronged approach.  He can catch the ball out of the back field, making the Safeties and linebackers have to pay attention to where he is on the field and also maintaining the ability to run should Jackson have another year of sub-par health.  I think the Rams build a stronger O-line and take Kalil. 3. Vikings    3-13 .559 4. Browns    4-12 .531 5. Bucs    4-12 .551 6. Redskins    5-11 .477 7. Jaguars    5-11 .500 8 Panthers    6-10 .504 8. Dolphins    6-10 .504 10. Bills    6-10 .520 11. Chiefs    7-9 .512 11. Seahawks    7-9 .512 13. Cardinals    8-8 .469 14. Cowboys    8-8 .473 15. Eagles    8-8 .488 16. Jets    8-8 .500 17. Raiders-x    8-8 .504 18. Chargers    8-8 .516 19. Bears    8-8 .527 20. Titans    9-7 .563 21. Bengals    9-7 .492 22. Falcons-y    10-6 .480 23. Lions    10-6 .535 24. Steeler    12-4 .492 25. Broncos    8-8 .520 26. Texans    10-6 .516 27. Saints-z    13-3 .508 28. Packers    15-1 .508 29. Ravens    12-4 .477 30. 49ers    13-3 .449

[HOVA]

Everyone is saying Blackmon at 2.  I don't see it.  They need to keep Bradford upright and healthy for years to come.  Kalil is the pick here, barring a trade. 
I also think Blackmon is a candidate to slip in the draft anyway.  I believe I was talking to Game about this before, but I agree, the Rams trading down for multiple firsts or eventually trading up into the first to take Richardson if he slips a bit would benefit them a lot too.  Interested to see the rest.  Great job so far buddy.

Mule, Game, and Apple let me know if you guys want to do our 2 round NFL mock again.

[TheGame]

Everyone is saying Blackmon at 2.  I don't see it.  They need to keep Bradford upright and healthy for years to come.  Kalil is the pick here, barring a trade. 
I also think Blackmon is a candidate to slip in the draft anyway.  I believe I was talking to Game about this before, but I agree, the Rams trading down for multiple firsts or eventually trading up into the first to take Richardson if he slips a bit would benefit them a lot too.  Interested to see the rest.  Great job so far buddy.

Mule, Game, and Apple let me know if you guys want to do our 2 round NFL mock again.

I'm cool with doing that mock draft again

[bigapple]

Tuesday before the draft for our live mock??

[bigapple]

Posted my Minnesota analysis and pick.

[bigapple]

Have an interesting pick in store for Cleveland working on the right up. 

[TheGame]

I think the Rams sack problem is more of the QB's holding onto the ball to long and not as much an Oline problem.
Still with that being said. They really cant go wrong taking either guy there.
The downside for them if they trade down. Go down to far and they don't end up with either guy.

[bigapple]

I think the Rams sack problem is more of the QB's holding onto the ball to long and not as much an Oline problem.
Still with that being said. They really cant go wrong taking either guy there.
The downside for them if they trade down. Go down to far and they don't end up with either guy.

I would agree that Bradford's maturity hasn't peaked if we look at it from that perspective.  When Feely was in at QB on almost 100 attempts he was sacked 10 times.  Bradford threw about 360 attempts and was sacked 36 times.  Clemens numbers are very similar to Feely and Bradford's one of ten attempts ended in a sack.  Kalil would hopefully be a help.  But again, it wouldn't shock me either to see him entirely out of the league in three years.

[HOVA]

That kalil out of the league in three years comment.  You say that because of the nature of the NFL?  Or because there is something you generally don't like about his game?

[bigapple]

That kalil out of the league in three years comment.  You say that because of the nature of the NFL?  Or because there is something you generally don't like about his game?

The nature of the NFL and how the college game and it's stars are different when they get to the next level, you know the story, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich and the sort.  The guy looks like he can play with out a doubt.  It's interesting though when you look at the hype some of these guys get coming out of college and then look back 3-5 years later and you can't believe that three picks later you could have had so and so that is a perennial Pro-Bowler.  Look back at the '06 draft and it is real clear that 3-4 of the top 12 guys are barely holding on in the league yet.  If someone had told me in 2006 that Matt Leinhart and AJ Hawk could be had for a third round pick or maybe less in 2012 I would have told them they were stoned.

[HOVA]

That kalil out of the league in three years comment.  You say that because of the nature of the NFL?  Or because there is something you generally don't like about his game?

The nature of the NFL and how the college game and it's stars are different when they get to the next level, you know the story, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich and the sort.  The guy looks like he can play with out a doubt.  It's interesting though when you look at the hype some of these guys get coming out of college and then look back 3-5 years later and you can't believe that three picks later you could have had so and so that is a perennial Pro-Bowler.  Look back at the '06 draft and it is real clear that 3-4 of the top 12 guys are barely holding on in the league yet.  If someone had told me in 2006 that Matt Leinhart and AJ Hawk could be had for a third round pick or maybe less in 2012 I would have told them they were stoned.

Figured thats what you meant.  It should be interesting to see how ends up busting out from this draft class

[TheMule]

Everyone is saying Blackmon at 2.  I don't see it.  They need to keep Bradford upright and healthy for years to come.  Kalil is the pick here, barring a trade. 
I also think Blackmon is a candidate to slip in the draft anyway.  I believe I was talking to Game about this before, but I agree, the Rams trading down for multiple firsts or eventually trading up into the first to take Richardson if he slips a bit would benefit them a lot too.  Interested to see the rest.  Great job so far buddy.

Mule, Game, and Apple let me know if you guys want to do our 2 round NFL mock again.

I don't think I'm the right guy to do it this year.  Since I've moved down here to Florida, football and all other sports have been put on the back-burner.   Now I understand why Florida teams can't get any fans to attend sporting events...  it's freakin' beautiful outside every day!  The water, the sunshine, the chicks in bikinis, the wildlife, boating, etc...  I haven't watched sportscenter in at least two weeks.   For the previous 20 years I never went more than two days without seeing sportscenter.   I've got a fundamental change occurring and believe I'm moving onto a new chapter in my life that doesn't include so much time in front of the boob tube watching sports.  I haven't made a bet since the Championship games.  Shit, I even listen to Jimmy Buffett now.          

[TheMule]

I will be adding detail as I get through my research.  I will add the Giants and Patriots when their draft order becomes final.

Feel free to start your own thread or comment in mine.

Team	Record	SOS
1. Colts	2-14	.539

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Height: 6-4. Weight: 235

Whether Peyton Manning ever takes another NFL snap is to be seen.  But the start of another oh so promising career is on the horizon.  There is little doubt in my mind that the Colts are probably already talking long term contract with Andrew Luck and will use the $28 million roster bonus that is due Peyton Manning on March 8th to sign him. 

2. Rams

2-14

.590

Matt Kalil,  OT,  University of Southern California Height: 6-7. Weight: 295 Looking over this Rams squad I really don't see a whole heck of a lot to get excited about.  The obvious, you have a super star stud RB in Steven Jackson. I can see this pick going one of two ways.  You take Matt Kalil and look to solidify an offensive line that gave up 55 sacks.  That sounds pretty safe.  The other route would be to trade down a little and look to tab another OT and hopefully add an offensive weapon with a later pick.  The Rams used their 3rd and 4th round picks last year on WR's Austin Pettis and Greg Salas.  When one out of every 3 passes is targeted for Brandon Lloyd, I think the message becomes clear that they need more play makers on this offense.  Steven Jackson is not getting younger.  Trent Richardson proved week in and week out that he could play against top SEC defenses.  Picking him here would be a bit of a surprise, but a good running back has a two pronged approach.  He can catch the ball out of the back field, making the Safeties and linebackers have to pay attention to where he is on the field and also maintaining the ability to run should Jackson have another year of sub-par health.  I think the Rams build a stronger O-line and take Kalil. 3. Vikings    3-13 .559 Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU Height: 6-7. Weight: 295 This is where the draft will get interesting.  There are a number of moves the Vikings could make at this point and plenty of things to take into consideration.  Christian Ponder is proving to be a capable QB, possibly able to move into the Eli Manning type of success over the next couple of years, not always pretty, but definitely capable of winning a game.  His ability to dodge the rush is key and showed a weakness with the Vikings O-Line.  With AP's knee injury the Vikings will have to take into account that history shows this injury takes at least a year to get back to health.  From what I have read, they are saying that he will be ready to go to start the year, but that few have performed to the level they had prior to this injury until the second year back.  Toby Gerhart has proven he can play and produce.  The receiving corp of this team is probably adequate with Harvin and Shiancoe, Blackmon maybe here, doubt it.  There are character issues here and there was one other guy that played here once that left a pretty bad taste in managements mouth.  So question No.1 is do they need a RB.  Question 2. is if Matt Kalil falls to the 3rd pick, nothing else matters because you take him.  That said, there are other nice OT in this draft, and a couple possibly via free agency.  As we know in drafting teams have a longer term plan with where they want to be, and we don't get that side prior to the draft.  We generally get the media's side of best player available and that is who goes.  I think the Vikings look at their division and realize that they need to make a move on defense to defend the high powered offenses they face with Detroit and Green Bay, not to mention the rest of the league.  So I am going to say that Morris Claiborne is the pick here.  Percy Harvin will be looked at to fill a bit of the void should AP not get back to full strength.  Having Claiborne to return kicks and also pick up a CB position will lighten the load on Harvin.  Not to mention you grab a solid CB in a division that makes you have to have 2-3 capable CB's.    4. Browns    4-12 .531 Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama Height: 5-11. Weight: 224 Again we look at the team and look at what they need to compete in their division.  This team needs a healthy running back that can carry a good portion of the offense on his back and keep the defenses honest.  When you play in the AFC North and the defenses you face, you have to be able to run the ball.  Also, facing three teams that can pass relatively well, you have to be able to control the clock.  RG3 will probably be the a common picks amongst mockers that think Colt McCoy is not going to cut it.  There are two things that have to be taken into consideration and that is Peyton Hillis's health this year and also Colt is only a 2nd year guy.  Most NFL QB's go through their sophomore slump and look horrible.  I don't think Colt will ever be mistaken for Marino, Elway or Favre, but I do think you can get a QB that can play as well as Flacco or Dalton and keep you in a lot of games.  Greg Little and Josh Cribbs are OK receivers and I think Mohamed Massaquoi can still produce, provided Colt can get to his second or third progression.  I think TE is also a position the Browns need to bring into the offense to make this all work.  Green Bay's best years have been when they have a good running game teamed with a good TE that open up the receivers to 1-on-1's.  Trent Richardson brings everything I think you could ask for to round out this offense.  This defense can handle it's own. The interesting part.  I do think Holmgren goes for a QB and the guy that I think he may like, and complete speculation on my part, but I think you have to appreciate what you see in Nick Foles.  He has that NFL QB body at 6-4 240, Big Ben is 6-5 241 as listed at ESPN. He also doesn't come with all of the fan fair you would get from drafting a RG3.  The Browns will also look to draft a WR, I think Blackmon over Richardson is a mistake for the Browns.

Great write-ups B.A.   
[/td][/tr][/table][/td][/tr][/table]

[TheMule]

That kalil out of the league in three years comment.  You say that because of the nature of the NFL?  Or because there is something you generally don't like about his game?

The nature of the NFL and how the college game and it's stars are different when they get to the next level, you know the story, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich and the sort.  The guy looks like he can play with out a doubt.  It's interesting though when you look at the hype some of these guys get coming out of college and then look back 3-5 years later and you can't believe that three picks later you could have had so and so that is a perennial Pro-Bowler.  Look back at the '06 draft and it is real clear that 3-4 of the top 12 guys are barely holding on in the league yet.  If someone had told me in 2006 that Matt Leinhart and AJ Hawk could be had for a third round pick or maybe less in 2012 I would have told them they were stoned.

Figured thats what you meant.  It should be interesting to see how ends up busting out from this draft class

If Kalil is even close to as good as USC Tackle Tyron Smith that Dallas took with their top 10 pick last year, then he'll be fine.  Tyron Smith is gonna be a STUD for the next decade (barring injury).  He was way better than expected his rookie season.