Super Bowl Betting Info

[TheGame]

Super Bowl XLVI Opener
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Playoff Recap: This year’s NFL playoffs have watched the home team post an 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. We’ve also had a nice share of blowouts, with five of the first eight games decided by double digits. Prior to the conference championships, the smallest outcome so far was four points, as San Francisco beat New Orleans 36-32 in the Divisional Playoffs last weekend.
   
Fortunately, fans were treated to a pair of three-point outcomes and most would agree that you could easily be looking at the 49ers and Ravens squaring off in this spot. Who would you rather be, Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff or 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams?

Most total players probably had mixed emotions too after Sunday. After watching the ‘over’ notch a 6-2 mark in the two early rounds, the ‘under’ bounced back with a 2-0 mark in the Championship weekend. New England and Baltimore closed at 49 and if Cundiff makes his missed field goal, you’re looking at a worst case scenario of a push. The Giants and 49ers also had a chance with the new overtime rule but the ‘under’ was the right side, with the sharps and public both cashing tickets.

Super Bowl XLVI from Indianapolis

New England vs. New York Giants

Line: Patriots -3 (54.5)

Movement: The Greek started the festivities with the Patriots -3.5 and they’ve been holding steady. The Las Vegas Hilton opened 3 while the Wynn opened 4. The total has a lot of nice options, depending where you shop. You can get as low 54 and as high as 55.5.

Betting Notes: Gamblers will have to choose between a pair of red-hot teams in the finale. Since losing at home to the Giants (20-24) in Week 9, the Patriots have won 10 straight (6-4 ATS). Ironically, New York dropped four consecutive and five of six games after beating New England. Then, the Giants closed the regular season with two wins and ripped off another three in the playoffs, two coming on the road. The Patriots went 6-2 on the road this season, losing at Buffalo (31-34) in Week 3 and to Pittsburgh (17-25) in Week 8. The Giants posted a 7-3 record both SU and ATS away from home. The Patriots didn't play indoors during the regular season. The Giants played three games in a dome or under a retractable roof. In those encounters, New York went 2-1 both SU and ATS, and all three games went ‘over’ the number.

Super Bowl Betting Notes

New England is 3-1 in Super Bowls under head coach Bill Belichick

The Patriots have failed to cover (0-3 ATS, 2-1 SU) when listed as a favorite in the Super Bowl

The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the four SBs under Belichick as well

The Giants beat the Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. The combined 31 points never threatened the closing total of 55

The Giants have been to the Super Bowl four times, going 3-1, winning twice outright as underdogs

The NFC has won three of the last four Super Bowls and they’ve covered all four during this stretch

[TheGame]

Rob Gronkowski (ankle) will be "ready to go" for Super Bowl XLVI, a source tells the Boston Herald.
Gronkowski left Gillette Stadium in a walking boot Sunday, but that was likely a mere precaution. He was able to return to the game, said he was "fine" and celebrated afterward with his teammates. He probably suffered a mere Grade 1 ankle sprain when Bernard Pollard rolled up on him

[STGUCHI]

The last three Super Bowls with a total of 50 or more all saw the 'under' cash

[STGUCHI]

THE LINE OF -3 HAS BEEN TAGGED TO 6 OTHER SUPERBOWLS. THE DOGS AND FAVE HAVE SPLIT THEM 3-3

ONLY 6 SUPERBOWLS HAVE ENDED WITH THE SCORING DIFFERENCE OF 3. IRONICALLY THE THE PATRIOTS HAVE BEEN IN FOUR OF THEM (0-4 ATS)

[TheGame]

The Super Bowl is the daddy-mac of all games for action in Las Vegas. 

OK, that isn’t a bold statement, but there is a ton of deliberation that goes into hanging the opening number anticipating the true line, public perception, and a balanced book. 

Given the recent surge of popularity surrounding the New York Giants and the buzz that always accompanies the New England Patriots there was a real struggle about where to open this pointspread. 

Bookmakers speculated that the number for Giants-Pats rematch would probably be around 3.5 to 4 before the weekend. But after watching Tom Brady look human for once in his career, we were all open to change and discussion quickly ensues. 

The hardest part of booking a tight game is that every half point matters and there isn’t a single bookmaker who wants to use a price that has a strong chance of landing on a push with such a large ticket volume. 

Unfortunately, for a game like this, we’ll see in two weeks there was no other choice than using the 3 right out of the gate to balance things out. Now the real fun comes trying to gauge where the public will plunk down its cash compared to the professionals.

The worst nightmare for bookies with a 3-point spread is that both pro and Joe bettor will be on the same side, which would severely handcuff our ability to move the price.

Take it from me, after living through the carnage of the first Super Bowl between these two sides, I’m awfully thankful the moneyline this time around won’t be greater than +145.

Books’ biggest win:  While it wasn’t an outright win for the dogged Ravens, covering the number was a huge boost for the house. During large public betting events, it’s always a good thing for the house when the dog and under come in but the dog doesn’t win outright, which eliminates moneyline tickets. Despite some teaser exposure and the overwhelming professional support on the Ravens, the underdog cover was exactly what the bookmaker ordered.

Books' biggest loss: It might not be a loss yet but the Giants squeaking out an OT victory over San Francisco means there’s plenty of futures liability heading into the pro football championship. There are points when even the best bookmaker can get a bit careless with long shots in the future markets.  As if the Cardinals weren’t enough of a warning cry this past fall, Big Blue teaches a valuable lesson for the second time in as many months.

Futures report: Florida State has announced its presence in the college basketball landscape with authority. The Seminoles collected scalps this past week of college hoops bluebloods Duke and UNC along with an efficient dismantling of an undermanned Maryland team. FSU was once a long shot to even make the dance after an embarrassing performance at Clemson. But the big wins have cut the Noles’ odds to win the national title in the last seven days.

[TheGame]

ATS Trends
N.Y. Giants
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Giants are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

New England
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Superbowl games.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.

OU Trends
N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 9-1-1 in Giants last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-2 in Giants last 10 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 11-4-1 in Giants last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.

New England
Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games overall.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 24-8 in Patriots last 32 games as a favorite.
Over is 14-5 in Patriots last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 26-10-1 in Patriots last 37 games on fieldturf.

Head to Head
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New England.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

[TheGame]

SBXLIV Betting Notes
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Before the Conference Championship games were played Sunday, most Las Vegas bookmakers had a feeling that the matchup between the Patriots-Giants would have New England being a 4½ to 5-point favorite for the Super Bowl. But just as New York’s Lawrence Tynes was kicking his game winning overtime field goal -- the second time he's done it in a championship game -- the LVH Super Book hung the Patriots minus-3, which came as a shockingly low number to a few.

Other books like the South Point and Station Casinos opened the Patriots at -3½-flat, but within minutes the line came tumbling down to -3. MGM Resorts went from -3½ to -3½ (EV) with hopes that they won’t ever go to the key number -3, a worst case scenario in a game of this magnitude if it lands on 3 and they find themselves bouncing on and off the number.

It’s apparent that we witnessed Sunday had a major bearing on what the Super Bowl line would open as.

“We just felt that the Giants aggressive play on both sides of the ball, especially their strong defensive play, was more impressive than the Patriots play, not only on Sunday, but against all quality competition this season,” said LVH executive director Jay Kornegay.

The Giants battled all game long against one of the league’s top defenses in their 20-17 win at San Francisco while the Patriots found themselves very fortunate to come out with a 23-20 home victory over the Ravens. The Giants have had the most rapid increase in their power rating the last five weeks.

Despite the game being on a key number right now, Kornegay said his booking strategy for a game of this magnitude will be vastly different from any of the playoff or regular season games played this season.

“We’re not going to settle in to a number right now,” said Kornegay, “we’ll probably have a larger extension to risk at a certain number as we get closer to the game, but early on we’ll let the money move us quicker until we find what the right number is whether that means 3, 2½ or 3½.”

Three is a dangerous number to play with and most sports books are probably hoping that the game runs one way or another to avoid the most popular margin of victory in pro football. The five year average of all pro football games shows 14.6% of all games landing on 3, not including both of Sunday’s Championship games which were both won by three-point margins.

Should the sports books find themselves jumping back and forth around the most dangerous number in the biggest game of the year, and then the favored team happened to win by 3, it’ll be a rough decision for the house.

The hope for most sports books is that the what-we-saw-last mentality wears off and that favored team gets back up to -3½, and maybe even -4, before the massive onslaught of action begins on the final weekend.

It was just last season when we saw a steady 3 last throughout with the favored Packers beating the Steelers 31-25. Before that, the last 3 we saw in the Super Bowl was the Ravens beating the Giants 34-7 after the 2001 season.

Regardless of what the number settles on, Kornegay expects handle to be great for this game.

“With these two teams, I would expect the handle to match last seasons ($87 million),” said Kornegay.

Last year’s Super Bowl saw a net win of only $724,176 across the entire state for a low 0.8% that left many major sports books as losers for the day, something they hope doesn’t reoccur this year. They definitely don‘t want a repeat the 2008 Super Bowl that saw the Giants win straight-up as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. That was the worst Super Bowl in Nevada history with a loss of $2.57 Million (-2.8%).

That Super Bowl loss was spurred by the majority of small money piling up on a deflated money-line price with the underdog. Despite getting no value on the money-line, bettors still lined up to bet the Giants to win straight-up and the books couldn’t make up to the 3-to-1 payouts.

This is the only game of the year where sharp money means very little. The movement we saw Sunday night when the line was first posted was dictated by large money with lower limits. But once the days start to count down to February 5, all the little $20 bets will account for much more than a single $20,000 wager from a wise guy.

The all-time record for Super Bowl handle was in 2006 when a booming economy sent $94.5 million in wagers through Nevada sports book windows. The Steelers-Seahawks game didn’t provide the most glamorous matchup in Super Bowl history, but cash was flowing through Vegas from all neighborhoods at that time like never before.

If Nevada is able to match last year’s great matchup as Kornegay says is possible, than it should be considered a success. Now the hard part is winning and trying to match the all-time win record, which was in 2005 when books held 17% with $15.4 million in win. That was a bookmakers dream where the favored Patriots (-7) won 24-21, but didn’t cover against the Eagles and the game stayed UNDER (46½).

Sports Books Do Well Sunday

Between banking conference future wagers and beginning Sunday with the best possible scenario in the AFC Championship game, the Las Vegas sports books did well. It was a bookmakers dream with the favored Patriots (-7) winning 23-20, but not covering against the Ravens. The dream got even better when the game stayed UNDER the total (49).

There was still some leftover risk from that game going into the late game and the Giants had the edge from public play making it the worst possible decision. However, with the game staying UNDER the total (41), it made the best out of a possible bad situation.

“We did very well in the early games, but the bettors got some of it back late with the Giants,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It didn’t help matters that 7-point teaser went 8-0 on the day and 6-point teasers went 7-1.”

Imagine that, if you had just gone to the betting window and said let me tease every side and total 7-points, you would have walked away a winner as every game stayed within the boundaries of the spread. Last season in the championship round, teasers were 7-1, which may be why some sports books don’t offer teasers in the playoffs.

South Point Sports Book Service

I spent Sunday afternoon watching and betting the games at the South Point sports book and my jaw dropped when I noticed that they had 12 windows exclusively open for sports betting. It’s the only all sports book in town that has a race book with each in its own separate part of the casino, which makes it nice, but that type of service in this era of companies squeezing every cent in their labor force left me in amazement.

Most other sports books in town have had to down size their labor force considerably. From an economic stand point, it’s understandable on their end because the labor expense is really the only expenditure that they can have a real grip on. Most of you may have noticed that more and more race and sports books have gone to having multi-task windows that take both pari-mutual horse and sports wagers. That all works nice when the time of day is slow, but at key moments such as when a race is going off and games are kicking or tipping off simultaneously, both race and sports bettors sometimes get shut out.

It’s easy for the book to say, ”You’ve had all day to bet this race or that game,” but at some point a depleted race and sports book staff -- which is the case almost everywhere in town -- should have cause for concern by upper management who rarely see those shut out moments.

The small percentage of guests that call to complain are brushed off as constant complainers and those who don’t complain just choose to go elsewhere and are never heard from again.

This is why a tip of the cap and a salute goes out to Osborne and his staff for never getting anyone shut-out and for Michael Gaughan ensuring that a lack of labor will never cost him a guest.

[TheGame]

Books scared of a "Middle"
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We’ve had 10 Super Bowls with the spread hovering around minus-3 and none of them have landed on the number. This year’s Super Bowl opened with the Patriots as 3½-point favorites and quickly went to -3 and based on the way almost every book has -3 (EVEN) posted, it looks as though we could be seeing -2½ quickly, but Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert hopes it doesn’t and based on past history, it probably won‘t.

“I think 3-flat (-110) is the perfect number that the betting public understands,“ said Colbert who opened the Patriots -3 (-115) and is currently at -3 (-105). “I’m hoping we get balanced up enough to where we can go in to next week with a 3-flat.”

In recent history, we have seen four of the five Super Bowls that have landed on 3 occur and they all involved the Patriots. In each of their games, the spread never came into question as they were 14-point underdogs to the Rams, 7-point favorites against both the Panthers and Eagles and 12-point favorites against the Giants.

“I’m superstitious, so now I’m really not getting off the number,” Colbert said jokingly after told about the Patriots love of 3 in the Super Bowl. “Obviously we don’t want a push, but until we get overwhelming support for the Giants that puts us in too much jeopardy, I’m staying on the number.”

“We got early action on the Patriots because we opened lower than what the market had, but since then it’s been all Giants money. However, I do think it will even out because the Patriots have been a public team, along with the Packers, all season.”

There have been 37 games (13.9%) this season that landed on 3, including both Championship games last Sunday. The sports books want a decision in the game, but not at the risk of putting their property in harm’s way.

The last two Super Bowls that ended in pushes were the Rams (-7) beating the Titans 23-16 in SBXXXIV and the Packers (-14) beating the Patriots 35-21 in SBXXXI. In each case, there were lines a mile long at the books with everyone getting refunds. The books all ended up small winners due to propositions and OVER-UNDER wagers, but a decision with the type of volume that happens in these games is what they want, because it’s very rare that the books lose the big game.

But messing around with a key number can get a book into serious trouble by either getting sided or getting middle, which happened in the Super Bowl following the 1979 season when the Steelers played the Cowboys. Jimmy Vaccaro was just getting started in the sports book business at the Royal Inn and remembers it being a real education into bookmaking.
   
“You have to remember that things were much different back then. Most of the casinos in town didn’t have sports books, there was no Internet and most of the betting people did from outside the state was through bookmakers,” said Vaccaro. On the East Coast, many of the bookmakers knew people were going to bet the Steelers so they were making bettors lay -4½ with Pittsburgh. On the West Coast, many of the bookmakers were operating with a line of -2½ because of knowing they’d get Dallas money.”

So Vaccaro knew what the market was on each side of the coast and had to set the line for his book. The Cowboys were considered "America's Team" and defending Super Bowl champions and the Steelers had won back-to-back Super Bowls two years earlier.

“I opened the Steelers minus-3, got as high as 4½ and finally closed at 3½. Some of the little bet shops around town were also offering a promotional deal to create more business to their place by offering the Steelers at -3½ and Cowboys at +4½. None of us thought the game would land 4, but you know how the rest of the story goes.”

Steelers 35 Cowboys 31

“It’s never a good thing when you’re paying everyone as winners or giving their money back on a push,” said Vaccaro. “And back then we didn’t have computer systems to quickly generate an overall win-loss result. I knew the figure was going to be bad, but I had to wait and hand grade every ticket and it took over four hours until I was able to give a final answer to Michael (Royal Inn owner, Michael Gaughan, current owner of the South Point).”

“We had lines of people backed up all the way to convention center drive waiting to cash,” said Vaccaro. “It was a great baptism into bookmaking and a lesson very well learned.”

Although there aren’t many current bookmakers around who actually experienced the sting of that day, they all know the story of what happened on the fateful day known as “Black Sunday.” With a little history lesson intertwined, it’s quite understandable to see why we may never see the Patriots game drop below -3, no matter how much money is attached.

With the way the action is currently going, we could see Patriots -3 (+115) before someone finally makes the move to -2½. More than 99.9% of the action on the game is still to come, so each of the books in Las Vegas has plenty of time to make their move without getting stung too bad by getting middled or sided. But no one wants to be first. If making a guess on who might be first in Vegas, it would have to be the South Point which only uses flat (-110) numbers.

We’ll keep you updated along the way as it happens.

[TheGame]

Super Bowl XLVI odds: Taking stock of the best prop bets

The Super Bowl prop parade has begun.

Offshores have released hundreds of props already, with one book telling Covers.com it will post thousands by kickoff. The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook, which sets the standard for props in Vegas, will release its props later this week.

The fact that 5Dimes.com offers four ways to bet the coin toss, and that Sportsbook.com is taking action on who Barack Obama, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney will pick to win the game, hints at the cornucopia of betting opportunities.

Have a gut feeling or inside info on the sideline Gatorade?

At Sportsbook.com, yellow Gatorade is the -120 favorite to be dumped on the winning coach. Red and blue are the biggest longshots at +1200.

5Dimes.com is paying +10,000 if the first score is a safety. If you think the Giants will win by exactly 41 points, then by all means get down on it for a sweet +140,000 payout. To bet against that result, you only have to lay -630,000.

5Dimes general manager Tony Williams said he’s adding props “every day, every minute. We’ll be in the thousands by Super Sunday.

“Customers love them, and they do get a lot of action,” he added. “But grading disputes is a headache.”

Last year’s offbeat props included whether Aaron Rodgers would do his championship belt celebration and how many times announcers would use the phrase “Big Ben.”

Here’s a sampling of current props, from basic to exotic, at Sportsbook.com.

Will Madonna sing the words “Like a Virgin” at any point during the halftime show?

Yes +180
No -240

Hakeem Nicks, total receiving yards

Over 79.5 -115
Under 79.5 -115

How many times will NBC show Peyton Manning on screen between kickoff and the final whistle?

Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -120

Will Jason Pierre-Paul record a sack?

Yes -160
No +120

Who will NBC show first on screen between kickoff and the final whistle?

Abby Manning -140
Giselle Bundchen +100

Will Tom Brady throw a 4th-quarter TD pass? (OT does not count)

Yes +130
No -160

What side of the ball will the players who perform the Gatorade shower be from? (Players must be holding a part of the bucket. If there are players from both the offense and defense involved, wagers will be No Action).

Offense +150
Defense – 200

Will Ahmad Bradshaw make a one-handed catch?

Yes +250
No -400

[TheGame]

SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The day after MGM Resorts moved the Patriots to -2.5 (-125) because of an onslaught of Giants money, South Point sports book director Bert Osborne followed suit, but gave a much meatier bone for sharp money -- if any -- to sink their teeth into by offering the Patriots at -2.5-flat.

"I had enough and I figured while it was still early enough, I'd test the waters a little and see if -2.5-flat actually had some value," said Osborne. "I think it does, but I've only had the move up for a half-hour and it’s still all Giants money."

The public doesn't seem to care what the line is on the Giants whether it's betting into a bad money-line or taking the almost meaningless +2.5. As of right now, all they know is they want the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday.

"We'll see where this takes us," said Osborne. "We're probably going to take about four times as much risk on this move, at this stage, than we would in a regular playoff game."

After over 24 hours of action, the MGM Resort properties are happy with their decision to jump out early Tuesday.

"We're pretty balanced at -2.5 (-125) right now since the move," said VP of race and sports Jay Rood.

More Las Vegas sports books may soon follow to the land below a field goal spread. No one wants to be left out without any Patriots money, if there is any to be had.

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 a.m. PT)

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."
   
Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

[TheGame]

Super Bowl Super Stats
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Safe to say there are a myriad of statistics, angles and theories we can draw from when handicapping the Super Bowl. But the fact remains there are plenty of advantages to be found when it comes to tabbing this year's winner.

Let's take a quick look how New England and New York arrived to SB XLVI and at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Common Denominators

These two teams squared off against one another's division in 2011 and the results were, for all intents and purposes, diametrically opposite.

New England was 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS and 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in games against the NFC East while New York hit a grand slam against the AFC East, going4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 ITS.

Additionally, the Patriots' opponents combined for an overall record of 141-157 (.473) this season while New York took on foes that ended up 176-139 (.559).

Advantage: Giants.

The 'R' Word

Revenge has been a factor in Super Bowl games.

New York upset New England in Foxboro as 9-point underdogs this season, despite being outgained by 77 yards in the contest, thus setting up a 'double-revenge' incentive for Tom Brady's bunch from seeing dreams of a perfect season ruined in a 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

Interestingly, teams playing with same season loss revenge are 7-5 SU in Super Bowls, including 3-0 the last three games.

Revenge has been a staple for the Patriots especially under the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Dynamic Duo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss, including 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS when playing off three or more wins in a row.

In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this campaign

Advantage: Patriots.

Faux Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it's like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a bad case of diabetes. That's because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-11 SU and 13-16-2 ATS record, including 5-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (read: New England) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-9 SU and 7-13-2 ATS.

The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS, an interesting stat considering that Tom Coughlin's teams have surrendered more than 28 points in only three of 15 postseason games while Bill Belichick's troops have tallied more than 28 points in just six of 24 playoff contests.

Advantage: Giants.

20/20 Vision

Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don't, lose the game and the money. It's just that simple.

And twenty points appears to be the cut-line.

That's because, since 1977, teams that fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 30-11 SU and 27-11-3 ATS. Ironically, the only team to score fewer than 20 points and win a Super Bowl in that span was New York in its 17-14 win over New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 26-1 SU and 23-3-1 ATS dating back to 1977.

Advantage: Even.

Seed Me

16 top seeded teams from the AFC have made it to the title game since 1977, but only four were crowned champions – the most recent being the 2003 New England Patriots.

No. 1 seeds are 6-12-1 ATS since 1990, including 2-8 SU and ATS the last 10. In fact, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the '99 Rams.

And going back the last 16 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game, going an eye-opening 1-12-2 ATS following the Steelers failure against the Packers last year.

Advantage: Giants.

Conference Call

Like the National League's one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 20-11 SU and 19-10-2 ATS.

However, the NFC is only 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS of late in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the ninth time in ten years the AFC will dress up as the favorite.

Advantage: Even.

That's an early take on this year's Super Bowl matchup. Now, take advantage of the edges, bet with your head and not over it, and good luck as always.

[TheGame]

SuperBook releases SB props, setting off betting frenzy

The line went 20 deep at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook on Thursday night.

Bettors rushed to get action down on the 300-plus Super Bowl prop bets the book had just posted. It’s a tradition the book is famous for.

“These things get so much action it’s crazy,” SuperBook director Jay Kornegay told Covers.com moments after the props went up. “We just opened them, we’re taking $2,000 limit bets on these things, and we’ve probably already taken 40 of those bets and we’ve still got a line 20 deep.”

The book limited bettors to two wagers at a time. They got back in line to place more.

“Most of them are betting opinions, but there’s a few scalps here and there,” Kornegay said, referring to sharps who try to exploit different odds at multiple books. “They basically put themselves in position to say, ‘If this happens, we break even. If this one happens, we win $120.' There’s always going to be some of that.

“That’s what a lot of sharps try to do the first few days.”

The SuperBook loves devising crossover props involving other sports. You can bet:

Michigan's points against Michigan State (-5.5) vs. Total points in Super Bowl

Ahmad Bradshaw's longest run (-2.5) vs. Points scored by Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr.

Boston Celtics' points against Memphis (-14.5) vs. Rob Gronkowski's receiving yards

Rob Gronkowski’s TDs vs. Alex Ovechkin's points against Boston (-155)

Patriots' first downs (-6.5) vs. Points scored by Duke’s Plumlee brothers against Miami

Phil Mickelson’s 4th-round birdies at Phoenix Open (-.5) vs. Giants punts

Sergio Garcia’s 4th-round score at Qatar Masters (-21.5) vs. BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ rushing yards

Distance of first FG made (-.5) vs. Total rugby points scored by Wales and Ireland

Giants' points (-1.5) vs. Carmelo Anthony's points vs. New Jersey

Total points scored by the six Big Ten teams playing that day (-63.5) vs. Tom Brady's gross passing yards

Total goals in Chelsea-Manchester United (-.5) vs. Made field goals

Wayne Rooney's goals vs. Brandon Jacobs' TDs (-300)

Each year, the SuperBook adds a few new props.

With touchbacks so prevalent now that kickoffs are from the 35, the book added: Will the first kickoff of the Super Bowl result in a touchback? "Yes" is -120, "No" is even.

The book put up two props instead of one on the number of TD passes Brady and Eli Manning will throw.

If you want to bet Manning will throw more than 1.5 TDs, you have to lay -220. To bet over 2.5, you get +220.

Brady is +115 to throw more than 2.5 TDs, and +300 to throw more than 3.5.

The five Gronkowski props were the hardest to make.

"After a long discussion we figured he was about 85 percent but that's what we're guessing," Kornegay said. "I know he's not going to be 100 percent but he could be 95 or 75. The walking boot, the sprained ankle, those things can be tricky. We just used about 85 percent of what would be normal for him and went with that."

Creating the props took Kornegay and his staff, including Ed Salmons, Jeff Sherman and Chris Bennett, countless hours over several weeks. In fact, they prepared many props anticipating a Patriots-49ers matchup.

“Sometimes you’re about ready to shoot yourself,” Kornegay said. “But you get a lot of people who come in and enjoy it.”

Of course, he adds, “I hope we win some money for all the work.”

Expert tips on SB props

We asked two professional handicappers how they approach Super Bowl props, and to give us a couple they like.

Both encouraged bettors to shop around because a few yards can make or break you on, say, a receiving yards' prop. Both stressed that your plays depend on how you handicap the game.

"If you see the Giants winning, you have to figure out how they will do it," Covers expert Scott Rickenbach said. "If it means controlling the ball on the ground, then look at some of the props involving their running backs. You should work from the outside in."

It's not like betting multiple games on an NFL Sunday, Covers expert Steve Merril noted.

"You have to be careful if you play five or six props based on the same theme, and it doesn't play out how you handicap it," he said. "These aren't independent plays."

That's why Merril recommends betting smaller units.

Merril, who releases six or seven props to his clients, told us he's looking at unders in the first quarter and first half.

"What's interesting about the Week 9 Giants-Patriots game is that the first half was scoreless and in the second half they scored 44 points," he said. "A lot of times, the Super Bowl starts a bit slow. They come out conservative and they don't want to make that mistake."

While four of the past five Super Bowls have featured a defensive or special teams touchdown, Merril believes it's less likely this year.

"You have two veteran QBs, and neither secondary has done much this year," he said. "You don't have any big special teams playmakers on either side."

At Sportsbook.com, the prop on a defensive or special teams TD is -175 for "No," +145 for "Yes."

Rickenbach suggests finding value in second- and third-tier players, like previous Super Bowl heroes Santonio Holmes and David Tyree.

"Opponents gameplan so much for the stars," he said, "it gives opportunities to the lesser-known players to step up and make the big plays.

[TheGame]

NY GIANTS (12 - 7) vs. NEW ENGLAND (15 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NY GIANTS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games


NY GIANTS vs NEW ENGLAND
NY GIANTS: 10-2 ATS as a Wild Card team
NEW ENGLAND: 26-9 Over in all games

[TheGame]

Super Bowl Super Stats
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Safe to say there are a myriad of statistics, angles and theories we can draw from when handicapping the Super Bowl. But the fact remains there are plenty of advantages to be found when it comes to tabbing this year's winner.

Let's take a quick look how New England and New York arrived to SB XLVI and at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Common Denominators

These two teams squared off against one another's division in 2011 and the results were, for all intents and purposes, diametrically opposite.

New England was 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS and 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) in games against the NFC East while New York hit a grand slam against the AFC East, going4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 ITS.

Additionally, the Patriots' opponents combined for an overall record of 141-157 (.473) this season while New York took on foes that ended up 176-139 (.559).

Advantage: Giants.

The 'R' Word

Revenge has been a factor in Super Bowl games.

New York upset New England in Foxboro as 9-point underdogs this season, despite being outgained by 77 yards in the contest, thus setting up a 'double-revenge' incentive for Tom Brady's bunch from seeing dreams of a perfect season ruined in a 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

Interestingly, teams playing with same season loss revenge are 7-5 SU in Super Bowls, including 3-0 the last three games.

Revenge has been a staple for the Patriots especially under the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Dynamic Duo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss, including 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS when playing off three or more wins in a row.

In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this campaign

Advantage: Patriots.

Faux Favorites

The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it's like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a bad case of diabetes. That's because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-11 SU and 13-16-2 ATS record, including 5-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (read: New England) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-9 SU and 7-13-2 ATS.

The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS, an interesting stat considering that Tom Coughlin's teams have surrendered more than 28 points in only three of 15 postseason games while Bill Belichick's troops have tallied more than 28 points in just six of 24 playoff contests.

Advantage: Giants.

20/20 Vision

Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don't, lose the game and the money. It's just that simple.

And twenty points appears to be the cut-line.

That's because, since 1977, teams that fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 30-11 SU and 27-11-3 ATS. Ironically, the only team to score fewer than 20 points and win a Super Bowl in that span was New York in its 17-14 win over New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 26-1 SU and 23-3-1 ATS dating back to 1977.

Advantage: Even.

Seed Me

16 top seeded teams from the AFC have made it to the title game since 1977, but only four were crowned champions – the most recent being the 2003 New England Patriots.

No. 1 seeds are 6-12-1 ATS since 1990, including 2-8 SU and ATS the last 10. In fact, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the '99 Rams.

And going back the last 16 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game, going an eye-opening 1-12-2 ATS following the Steelers failure against the Packers last year.

Advantage: Giants.

Conference Call

Like the National League's one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 20-11 SU and 19-10-2 ATS.

However, the NFC is only 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS of late in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the ninth time in ten years the AFC will dress up as the favorite.

Advantage: Even.

[TheGame]

The Boston Globe reports that Rob Gronkowski will likely need his injured left ankle scoped following the Super Bowl.
Beat reporter Shalise Manza Young confirms that Gronk will play in Super Bowl XLVI, but his ankle will need to be "cleaned up" due to apparent ligament damage. While the operation doesn't sound major, it's clear Gronkowski will be at less than full strength against the Giants

[TheGame]

Trend Report

ATS Trends

N.Y. Giants

Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Giants are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

New England

Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Superbowl games.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.

OU Trends

N.Y. Giants

Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 9-1-1 in Giants last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-2 in Giants last 10 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 11-4-1 in Giants last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.

New England

Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games overall.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 24-8 in Patriots last 32 games as a favorite.
Over is 14-5 in Patriots last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 26-10-1 in Patriots last 37 games on fieldturf.

Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New England.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

[TheGame]

Scouts Inc: Giants-Patriots: 10 observations

Giants-Patriots: 10 observations




By Matt Williamson
Scouts Inc.

After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.


1. Deal with all the big-game hype: Both the conference championship games should have gone to overtime. Only one did, but needless to say both these teams had serious battles on their hands to advance this far. This is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's fifth Super Bowl appearance -- and that head coach/quarterback pairing has the most postseason wins of any in history. Brady is chasing his fourth Super Bowl ring. Don't expect either franchise to flinch under the white-hot lights of the Super Bowl. The Patriots have not lost since Week 9, which just happened to be against the Giants. Meanwhile, New York has won five straight elimination games and is clearly peaking in all facets at the right time.

2. Get to Brady: This is what everyone will be talking about most for this game. Can the Giants' fantastic defensive line dominate the game and derail New England's fantastic passing attack? New England features a pair of Pro Bowl guards and is talented at tackle. Plus, Brady moves very well in the pocket, gets the ball out quickly and anticipates the rush extremely well. But Brady's biggest weakness might be dealing with a very strong interior pass rush. Don't expect the Giants to blitz much at all in this game, because their front four should be explosive and all that New England can handle on a fast surface in a controlled environment. New York has a fine group of defensive tackles, but it is the ends who are truly special -- and could be the difference. It will be interesting to see what offensive personnel packages the Patriots employ, because if they go too pass-oriented, they will often have to deal with the Giants' Four Aces package of four great defensive ends on the line. Also, when these teams met in Week 9, the Pats often used extra offensive linemen, which is a tactic they could employ again.

3. Stay balanced: A Tom Coughlin staple is to show excellent offensive balance. As tempting as it might become to throw a high percentage of the time, that is unlikely to happen unless the Giants fall behind by a large deficit. Led by Vince Wilfork, the interior of New England's defensive line has played well of late, and running up the middle has become a difficult endeavor against the Patriots, who did quite well keeping Ray Rice under wraps in the AFC Championship Game. Ahmad Bradshaw is an extremely important member of the Giants' offense. He runs with great conviction and is a versatile back who can run inside or out and catch the football and is good in protection. Bradshaw was inactive for the Week 9 contest.

4. Limit New England's tight ends: The pairing of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is simply outstanding. There is just no way around that. Gronkowski is the total package as a two-way tight end and does some of his best work in the red zone. Hernandez can line up all over the formation and is just superb as a receiver. The Giants allowed two big plays for touchdowns to Vernon Davis in their last game and have allowed productive days for opposing tight ends during the regular season. They often utilize their Big Nickel package, even on early downs, with two cornerbacks and three safeties. Also, LB Michael Boley is a very good second-level coverage player. Any way you cut it, the combination of Gronkowski and Hernandez is a nightmare for every defense that New England faces. It does have to be noted that Gronkowski suffered an ankle injury against Baltimore. That needs to be monitored.

5. Matchup to watch: Giants C David Baas versus Patriots NT Vince Wilfork: While Wilfork was the best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game, Baas was in and out of the lineup in the NFC Championship Game as he battled injury. Baas, and the guards flanking him, better be at the very top of his game in the Super Bowl. Wilfork will play anywhere on the interior in the Patriots' 4-3. Not only can Wilfork utterly dominate and eat up blockers in the run game, while freeing up LBs Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes to get to the ball carrier, but Wilfork can also use quickness to penetrate and make plays in the backfield versus the run. Wilfork doesn't have a wide variety of pass-rush moves, but he has been very effective of late with his bull rush. Even if Baas knows the bull rush is coming, that doesn't mean he can stop it, as Wilfork is just an amazing combination of sheer bulk, power and leverage.

6. Slow down New York's weaponry: The Patriots should prepare to play a high number of snaps against the Giants' three-wide receiver package. New York will test the questionable depth of New England's secondary with three very skilled wideouts. The Patriots allow a lot of production through the air and it is wide receivers who have done most of the damage. Eli Manning spreads the ball around very effectively. He has been fantastic in the playoffs, with great clutch play and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-1. After Hakeem Nicks injured his shoulder, Manning went to Victor Cruz over and over in the NFC Championship Game. Cruz had 125 receiving yards in the first half of that game. Nicks was inactive when these teams met during the regular season, but he could present all kinds of matchup problems for the Patriots' corners. It would be a mistake to overlook what Mario Manningham brings to the table, too, and Manningham should see many matchups to his liking. This is a big-play offense, and New England gives up far too many long passes. Hooking up on a few deep balls could be the difference in this game in New York's favor. Still, the Patriots' pass defense has improved dramatically since earlier in the season. The Patriots also need to be very aware of the Giants' play-action attack, which Manning executes very well.

7. Get after Eli: Manning was sacked six times in the NFC Championship against a fantastic San Francisco pass rush, but before that game the Giants' protection was doing a fine job compared to earlier in the season. Manning has great pocket presence and movement skills. He isn't easy to sack and will stand in the face of the rush until the last instant to deliver the football. The Patriots are getting a consistent push with their massive interior defensive linemen, and the edge-rushers, Mark Anderson and Rob Ninkovich, are better at getting after the passer than often given credit for. Belichick is sure to mix in plenty of blitzes as well, but confusing Manning is a difficult endeavor. The Patriots have eight sacks in their two playoff games but were unable to sack Manning when they met during the regular season.

8. Control the tempo: The Giants are sure to see a lot of New England's no-huddle attack. Brady runs this style of offense extremely well. By doing so, the defense can't substitute personnel. If Brady finds a weakness -- which is very easy to do with the offensive personnel he has at his disposal -- he can consistently find favorable matchups. Brady is a master at controlling the flow of the game. He will speed things up if he feels the defense is on its heels or fatigued and can slow it down if that is what is best for his teammates. In their two playoff wins, the Patriots' running game has been especially productive out of the no-huddle attack.

9. Get a ground game going: New England is often considered an elite passing offense that isn't real effective on the ground. That is a misnomer. And the best way to attack a Giants defense that allowed 5.4 yards per carry in the NFC Championship is on the ground. The Patriots controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the day against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, and it was the reliable BenJarvus Green-Ellis who reaped the benefits. Green-Ellis gets what is blocked, plus a little more, but he isn't a big-play threat. Green-Ellis' powerful running style and ball security could be very valuable in this matchup. New England will utilize a multitude of ball carriers, though, including Danny Woodhead, who is as much a slot receiver as he is running back. Stevan Ridley is the wild card in this backfield. The most talented of these three as a pure runner, Ridley just isn't as established as Green-Ellis to be the lead ball carrier. Opposing running backs are doing a fair amount of damage against New York as receivers. The Patriots also have recently added a new wrinkle to their running game by handing the ball to Hernandez. The beauty of this tactic is that they don't have a running back on the field in these instances, so based just on personnel, the defense is not expecting run.

10. Matchup to watch: Patriots WR Wes Welker versus Giants CB Corey Webster:Webster is clearly the Giants' top cover man. He totally eliminated Michael Crabtree from the equation in the NFC Championship Game. New York could employ him against Welker, often in the slot, or Deion Branch on the perimeter. Welker is more important to the Patriots' offense, though, and New England doesn't really have a true deep threat at wide receiver. Welker is a real handful for everyone he faces, especially from the slot, where he is a master of option routes and reading defenses on the fly. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Welker did have quite a few drops this season. Still, he caught nine balls for 136 yards when these teams met in Week 9.


Prediction
New York 28
New England 24

[TheGame]

Accuscore - Super Bowl Prop Picks: Quarterbacks

Eli Manning Proposition Bets
Gross Passing Yards: Over/Under 313.5, -119/102
Total Pass Completions: Over/Under 25, 110/-129
Will Eli throw an interception: Yes/No, -190/161
Total touchdown passes: Over/Under 2.5, 169/-200
Will Eli win Super Bowl MVP: Yes/No, 209/-251
Eli Manning to have more passing yards in: First Half/Second Half + OT, 111/-130

Tom Brady Proposition Bets
Gross Passing Yards: Over/Under 324.5, 117/-137
Total Pass Completions: Over/Under 26, 100/-117
Will Brady throw an interception: Yes/No, -162/138
Total touchdown passes: Over/Under 2.5, 111/-130
What will happen first: Throw a touchdown/Throw an interception, -295/243
Will Brady win Super Bowl MVP: Yes/No, 105/-123

QB Comparison Props
Manning vs. Brady most gross passing yards: 11.5/-11.5, -136/116
Who will throw a touchdown first: Manning/Brady, -103/-113
Who will throw an interception first: Manning/Brady, -149/127
Manning vs. Brady, most touchdown passes: 0.5/-0.5, -129/110

Eli Manning gross passing yards: UNDER 313.5

AccuScore forecasts that Eli Manning will throw for 304.9 yards in the Super Bowl. Manning has a 45.6 percent chance of throwing for 314 yards or more against a Patriots defense that has picked up its play in the playoffs. Manning has been playing extremely well as of late, but I think the Giants will be successful with a balanced offense. When the Giants beat the Patriots in November he threw for 250 yards, but ended up victorious because of an effective running game and solid defense. I’m predicting a similar situation this Sunday.

Eli Manning to have more passing yards in the second half + OT

What makes Eli Manning a successful quarterback is his ability to step up late in the game. All year he has played his best football in the fourth quarter, often leading the Giants to a comeback win. The first half of the Super Bowl will see the two teams testing the waters and figuring out what works. I think the Giants will establish the run early and test the Patriot’s secondary with short passes through the first half. In the second half, Manning will be ready to deal real damage, especially in the fourth quarter when the pressure is on.

Tom Brady total touchdowns: OVER 2.5

Before I get to my thought process I should point out this pick is not backed by the numbers. AccuScore forecasts Tom Brady throwing 2.4 touchdowns, and the probability he throws three or more touchdowns is 44.2 percent. Also, the Giants haven’t given up three passing touchdowns since December 11 when Tony Romo threw four. With all of that in mind, I’m still confident Brady will throw three because of who Brady is. The Pats’ 2007 Super Bowl loss to the Giants still haunts him, and is driving him more than most people realize. I’m expecting to see Brady at his absolute best, which I’m hoping will result in at least three touchdown passes this Sunday.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception: Yes

The probability that Tom Brady throws an interception in the Super Bowl is 56.5 percent, which reflects the late season and playoff trend. Brady has thrown an interception in each of his last three games, including two against the tough Baltimore Ravens defense. The Patriots are not going to be very successful running the ball against the Giants defense, which will force Brady to make things happen in the air. I think he will have a good game, but an interception is likely with all the attempts he will have.

Who will throw an interception first: Eli Manning

The Patriots defense gave up a lot of yards during the season, but they were also good at forcing turnovers. New England’s secondary snagged 23 interceptions during the regular season, which was good for second in the league. In the playoffs the Pats have one interception. Manning is known to take risks, and should have thrown at least one pick against the Niners but was bailed out by the over eager SF secondary. I think both quarterbacks will throw picks, but Manning will win the race to the interception finish line.

[TheGame]

The dreaded middle is the boogeyman to many oddmakers.

Paying out action on both sides of a game is bad enough when it’s in the regular season, but what about in the most heavily-bet game of the year?

The feared middle reared its ugly head this past week when some sportsbooks, which opened the spread for Super Bowl XLVI at New England Patriots -3.5, moved the line from -3 to -2.5 with one-sided action on the New York Giants.

While the majority of books have hung tightly to the 3-point spread and reduced the juice on the Patriots to as low as +110, some shops, like the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, jumped to 2.5 earlier in the week without worry of a possible firestorm from bettors trying to win on both sides of the Big Game.

Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage, told Covers.com a large, six-figure wager on New England -3.5 from a wealthy casino patron provided them with a parachute when making the leap to 2.5 on Tuesday.

“If it falls on three, we don’t really get hurt,” says Stoneback. “Unlike a lot of places, we were fortunate that we took a ton of money on the Patriots -3.5 and we’re seeing great two-way action – about a 51/49 split for New England bets. If it were the other way around, yeah, we’d have some exposure at 2.5.”

Most sportsbooks are taking more action on the Giants at a near 3-to-1 pace, forcing oddsmakers to trim the vig on the AFC Champions. Stoneback believes that if everyone follows suit, and drops to 2.5, there will be a surge of Patriots money heading into the week before the Super Bowl.

Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hotel, feels comfortable keeping his spread at New England -3, where it opened last Sunday. While his book isn’t in danger of being middled on the Super Bowl finish, he doesn’t think it is something that concerns most of his contemporaries.

Due to the fact that the Super Bowl is the most publicly bet game, and that 80 percent of the action comes on Super Bowl weekend, those bettors who put themselves in a position to middle don’t make up a huge percentage of the overall handle.

“Those books that opened 3.5, they took some big bets early, but in the overall scheme of things it won’t be a big amount. Maybe five percent of the total handle,” Kornegay said Friday.

Stoneback doesn’t dismiss the fact that some bettors, who bought New York +3.5, will come in to bet New England at -2.5. But they’ll have to be willing to swallow the juice (-125) do so.

“People don’t want to shell out that extra quarter, so there is still a lot to be seen with this line right now,” he says.

[TheGame]

Early money on Giants, but majority of bets yet to be placed

The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC's Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants.

But there’s still a ton of money not yet in play.

Veteran Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who has been booking Super Bowls since the mid-70s, estimates 90 percent of the total handle bet on the Super Bowl will be placed on Saturday and Sunday.

“Right now, the money looks about 60/40 in favor of the Giants,” said Vaccaro, sportsbooks director at Lucky’s, “but if you call me back in 20 minutes that could have changed. We really don’t know anything yet.”

As of Monday afternoon, Lucky’s was in the majority of Vegas books, offering the Patriots -3 (even).

--David Purdum

South Point moving from 3 to 2.5 and back to 3

Bert Osborne, the sportsbook manager at South Point, opened his Super Bowl spread at 3.5 but didn’t stay there long.

“I think we were there for about 15 minutes,” Osborne told Covers.com. “We got a couple – I wouldn’t even say big bets - probably medium bets on the Giants. I didn’t want to risk it so I dropped us down to 3.”

Osborne says those medium bets were five figures.

South Point is at Patriots -2.5 but Osborne says he’s gone back and forth between 2.5 and 3 over the last couple days. Osborne says his book doesn’t play with the juice, which explains the yo-yo effect with South Point’s Super Bowl spread.

Final note: Osborne says he likes the Patriots over the Giants 31-20 in Super Bowl XLIV. He also predicted South Point would close its Super Bowl spread at 2.5.

Cantor shops holding steady at 3

Cantor Gaming, which runs the sportsbooks at the Venetian, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan and the M Resort, was one of the only books to open with a field goal spread. While everyone else spent some time at 3.5 and even 4 (Wynn), Cantor boss Mike Colbert opened at Pats -3 (-115).

“We got some early Patriot money, I think because we were the only ones that low,” Colbert told Covers.com. “We’re standing dead even now but we’re a little heavy on the Giants on the moneyline.”

Colbert said he’s not worried about the possibility of a push with the spread sitting on the most common separation in football final scores.

“This is a real easy number for public bettors to understand,” Colbert said. “My mother understands 3 even money but she doesn’t with 2.5 -125.”

[TheGame]

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview
By Teddy Covers 
Sportsmemo.com

The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.

The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.

-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week of the two-week NFL hiatus between the championship games and the Super Bowl getting besieged with one bet on the Giants plus the points after the next. A -160/+140 moneyline split has been bet down as low as -130/+110. The -3.5’s were all gone within 24 hours of their arrival, and there has been enormous downward pressure on the line even at New England -3.

Numerous sportsbooks have dropped the line down to New England -2.5, hoping to balance their books with some Patriots money. The books that are more risk averse – not willing to risk a potentially disastrous result for the house if New England won the Super Bowl by exactly three points – have adjusted the vig on the Giants +3 so bettors have to lay -120 or -125 to support the more popular team plus the points. Talking with sportsbook directors around Vegas, it’s very clear that they expect to be rooting hard for the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.

In conversations with other sportsbettors over the past week, it’s easy to understand why so many wiseguys have gone to the betting window in support of Tom Coughlin’s Giants. And most of the analysis that the bettors are looking at has nothing to do with the one strong prevailing trend that supports New York this weekend – the trend of the lower seeded team dominating the Super Bowl ATS.

Over the past 15 years, the higher seeded team has covered a grand total of one Super Bowl pointspread, while the lower seeded team has covered 12, with a pair of pushes where neither side covered. That 12-1-2 ATS angle comes into play supporting the Giants this year; a No. 4 seed compared to the No. 1 Patriots. But it’s certainly not the primary reason bettors are flocking towards the G-men on Super Bowl Sunday.

Rather, bettors are pounding the Giants because they think the Giants are the better of these two teams. There’s a lot of anti-Patriots sentiment, starting with the Patriots dismal track record in big games; just 1-7 ATS in their last eight playoff games, dating back to 2006. New England faced only three teams all year that finished the season with winning records (Pittsburgh, the Giants and Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game). The Patriots went 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in those games. Had Lee Evans been able to hang on to the football in the end zone in the final seconds against the Patriots last Sunday, that record would be 0-3 SU and ATS.

Bettors rank the Giants defense well ahead of New England’s stop unit. The Patriots defense finished near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category, including 31st out of 32 teams in both total defense and pass defense. Meanwhile, the Giants defense – riddled with injuries for a good portion of the season – is fully healthy right now. Key defensive contributors like Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Michael Boley and Kenny Phillips are all healthy and productive after missing time during the regular season.

Bettors also look at the road the Giants took to get here, ranking that well above New England’s weak schedule (only four teams in the NFL played a weaker slate than the Patriots). New York finished the regular season with the second ranked schedule. In their last dozen games, they’ve faced virtually every elite team in the league – these same Patriots along with the Eagles, Saints, Packers (twice), Cowboys (twice), Jets, Falcons and 49ers (twice).

Bettors certainly haven’t forgotten how the Giants went to Foxboro back in November and came away with the straight up win as 9-point underdogs against New England, despite playing without big play offensive weapons Ahmad Bradshaw or Hakeem Nicks. Nor have bettors forgotten their straight up playoff wins away from home against the Packers and 49ers in their last two games; two opponents that rank ahead of the Broncos-Ravens duo that the Patriots beat at home in most bettors’ power ratings.

There is no real revenge angle here to speak of; certainly not if we’re talking about the last meeting between these two teams four years ago. Of the 106 players currently on the two teams active rosters, only 22 of them suited up for Super Bowl XLII. But if you’re building a case for New England, this revenge angle certainly stands out. In the Belichick-Brady era, the Pats are 43-13 SU, 36-17-3 ATS when avenging a loss, including an 18-3 SU, 16-4-1 ATS mark when playoff off three or more wins in a row.  Clearly, this team makes good adjustments and uses their extra time to prepare wisely.

Another case can be made for the Patriots with some anti-Giants arguments. New York’s secondary was not an area of strength at any point this season; a major reason why this defense was ranked 23rd in ypg allowed and 22nd in scoring this year. If the Giants pass rush doesn’t reach Tom Brady on a consistent basis, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the NFL could have a field day. Let’s not forget that Brady is coming off a subpar showing against Baltimore, and he’s a quarterback with a long history of strong bounce-back efforts.

The Super Bowl winning Giants from four years ago also had a dominant running game behind Brandon Jacobs (5.0 yards per carry) and Derrick Ward (4.8 ypc), as the duo gained more than 1,600 rushing yards for the season and carried the team in the playoffs. This year, Jacobs averaged 3.8 yards per carry and his complement, Ahmad Bradshaw, averaged only 3.9. The duo combined for only 1,130 rushing yards for the entirety of the season. There’s much more pressure on Eli Manning in this game than there was the last time these two teams met for the title.

The Giants are also getting all kinds of credit for beating Green Bay and San Francisco on the road over the last two weeks. If you watched those games closely, you know that the Packers and 49ers both beat themselves as much if not more than the Giants beat them. Green Bay allowed that Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the half, a defensive play calling mistake from Dom Capers. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game looked completely out of sync following Rodgers’ three week lay-off, with a half dozen drops, numerous missed connections with wide open receivers and four ugly turnovers. Meanwhile, the Giants were well on their way to a loss at San Francisco before a pair of key punt return fumbles led to 10 fourth quarter and OT points, allowing the G-men to sneak away with the victory.

As with any Super Bowl, there’s a case to be made for both teams. So far, at least, bettors have been making a much stronger case for the Giants, leading to one-sided action and a potentially ugly result for the sportsbooks if the G-men pull off the minor upset.

[TheGame]

Super Bowl Props
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis kicks off Feb. 5 when New England meets the New York Giants with the Patriots looking to avenge losses to the Giants in Super Bowl XVII, and also a 24-20 defeat at Foxboro this season in a game which snapped a 20-game regular season home win streak by New England.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the year than first-timers at a gay rally.
   
It’s important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create more action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino Super Book.

Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.

1. The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also seen the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.

2. We’ll Take The Ball

In addition, similar props abound on which team will receive the ball first. The Giants are currently -180.

The reason being, as reported by Joe Fortenbaugh of NationalFootballPost.com is “On Sept 7, 2008, New England played the Kansas City Chiefs, won the toss and elected to receive. That was the day Tom Brady was lost for season with a torn ACL. Since that day, the Patriots have played 65 games - playoffs included - and won the coin toss 28 times. On all 28 occasions, New England elected to defer their choice to the second half and started the game by kicking off.”

3. Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 24 times in 45 previous Super Bowl games.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP’s.

New England’s Tom Brady and New York’s Eli Manning lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the Hilton favors Brady by 11 yards over Manning. You also have to lay an extra -$1.10 more on Brady than Manning in total TD passes for the contest.

4. When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

5. Team Scoring Tendencies

Certain edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. Note the Giants have played 19 games this campaign; the Patriots 18:

1Q – New York: 80-81 / 4.21-4.26
1Q – New England: 99-86 / 5.50-4.78

2Q – New York: 135-124 / 8.53–5.37
2Q – New England: 179-100 / 9.94-5.56

3Q – New York: 72-79 / 3.79-4.16
3Q – New England: 151-63 / 8.39-3.50

4Q – New York: 188-145 / 9.89-7.63
4Q – New England: 152-122/ 8.44-6.78

Notice that both teams’ defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season.

On the flip side, the Giants’ offense has performed at its best in the final stanza, whereas the Pats’ attack tends to rev up in the 2Q of games.

Incidentally, New England’s defense has been en fuego in the 3Q of its last 10 games, allowing just 20 points. The Patriots have also not allowed a point in any of their last three games during the final quarter.

6. Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI is New England TE Rob Gronkowski, high ankle sprain and all. He led the Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season.

Behind Gronkowski is New York WR Victor Cruz. New England’s other TE, Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis make up the leading four candidates.

Over the previous 45 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 18 times. Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson found the end zone first for the Packers against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

7. Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular prop.

One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is Eli Manning completions versus LeBron James points. Manning goes up against the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense while James and the Miami Heat will be hosting a Toronto Raptors defense that is surrendering less than 95 PPG on the season.

Meanwhile in a Beantown prop, Tom Brady’s touchdown tosses are paired against total team goals scored by the Boston Bruins in their game against the Washington Capitals.

One of our favorites, though, is who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first - with the choices being Teammates, Coach, Family, God, Owner or no one.

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the chances of acknowledging owner Robert Kraft in memory of his recently departed wife Myra. If you like the Giants it’s likely the winner will acknowledge his teammates.

One thing is for sure. It’s a good thing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will be watching from the sidelines. Otherwise God would have been an odds-on favorite.

[TheGame]

Breakdown of pro football's Super Bowl Sunday January 31, 2012 3:08 AM by Jim Feist

The 2008 Super Bowl thriller saw the New York Giants scoring late to stop the 18-0 New England Patriots, 17-14. For the rematch, much of the same cast returns, including the head coaches.

The Giants have 14 players remaining from that winning ’08 team, the Patriots have 7. Back in August, the Patriots were 5-to-1 and the Giants 18-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

We have been in a golden age for the AFC for a while. It’s almost as if the pendulum has swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row.

That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14, though the Giants would like to make it three in a row after the Saints and Packers won the last two seasons.

Since 2004 rules have been changed by the NFL to favor offense. That includes enforcing the 5-yard rule to help wide receivers get down field with less hindrance and the Tom Brady rule, which protects quarterbacks.

When the top-ranked offenses met two years ago, following the pass-happy Arizona Cardinals surprising run to the Super Bowl the previous season, many wondered if offense was now they way to build a championship team.

We get another answer to that puzzle as the Patriots are the modern "flashy offense" while the Giants are old school, with a powerhouse defensive line. Defense has almost always been the name of the game this time of the season and it appears defense has made a significant statement.

The Saints and Packers got it done with offense this season, but the defensive-oriented 49ers and Giants upset them in the playoffs. A year ago in the conference finals, four teams (Steelers, Jets, Packers, Bears) were ranked in the Top 10 in total defense and Top 6 in points allowed. The Packers and Steelers are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so maybe defense isn’t dead yet!

The Giants have been amazing in that they were 7-7 and on the bubble to even make the playoffs before a sizzling 5-0 SU / ATS run.

And how bad is this New England defense? They were second worst during the regular season, but have allowed 10 and 20 points in two playoff games, highlighted by the return of S Patrick Chung and LB Brandon Spikes, out much of the year.

The Giants hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 7-3 ATS the last 10 Super Bowls, winning four times. Here’s a look at what to expect this weekend as America’s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What Giants want

New York prefers to run the football and control the clock with RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, which will be imperative against New England’s no-huddle attack that can tire out defenses. The Giants rushed for 173 yards against the Falcons sixth-ranked run defense in the postseason and the NY defense allowed 247 total yards.

Their defensive front is so big and talented they probably won’t have to blitz a lot to get pressure on Brady, which is what took place in the 2008 Super Bowl as the New England offensive line was manhandled.

While everyone is talking about the New York defensive line, don’t forget that QB Eli Manning (37 TDs, 17 INTs) leads an offense that is fifth in the NFL in passing, with 296 yards per game. WR Victor Cruz has been outstanding (1,536 yards) along with WR Hakeem Nicks (1,192 yds) and will be a handful for this soft New England secondary.

The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 New York postseason contests.

What Patriots want

Get out in front early with their no-huddle and force the Giants to throw the football, playing their game. The Pats are at their best when forcing the other team to push the tempo which allows them to cause turnovers, a formula they used last season when leading the league in turnovers while going 14-2.

The Patriots (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) offense is explosive behind QB Brady (45 TDs, 15 INTs), WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and budding young star Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards), as his 17 TDs set a record for tight ends.

These teams met Nov. 6 at New England and the Giants won, 24-20, as Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left. The Patriots had 438 yards (332 passing) but were 5 of 15 on third down. The Giants had 361 yards (250 passing and were 4 of 14 on third down.

The Patriots turned it over four times (two picks off Brady) while the Giants turned it over twice. Manning completed 20 of 39 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was 28 for 49 for 342 yards and two TD’s.

Considering the past 35 years, the OVER is 21-15 in Super Bowl.

[TheGame]

Las Vegas bookies super bowl predictions January 31, 2012 3:01 AM by Micah Roberts

Jay Rood, MGM Resorts – Patriots 24-23: I see a low scoring game with Brady executing a last minute drive to seal the game and his hall of fame credentials.

Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming – Patriots 27-20: Brady and Belichick will be too much for the Giants in a double-revenge game.

Jay Kornegay, LVH Super Book – Giants 27-24: I think the Giants defensive momentum carries over into this game and frustrates Brady.

Bert Osborne, South Point – Patriots 31-20: I’ve seen the Giants look bad a lot more times this season than I have with the Patriots.

Bob Scucci, Coast Resorts – Patriots 27-24: I think this will be a closely fought game with no team getting too far ahead, just like their last Super Bowl and week 9 this year.

Vinny Magliulo, The Linemakers – Giants 27-23: G-Men are playing the most complete football on both sides of the line. They can put pressure on Brady and score with the Patriots.

Kitt Langvad, Arizona Charlies West – Patriots 31-24: I think the Pats have the better coach and even with a mediocre defense, they will score enough to win.

Jason McCormick, Station Casinos – Patriots 41-38: This has been the year of the quarterback and I expect it to continue here in a track meet.

Zack Goldberg, Wildfire – Patriots 27-16: Pats are extremely undervalued for a team that has won two in row. I have a hard time believing Eli can beat Brady in two Super Bowls.

Brian Blessing, Sports Book Radio – Patriots 31-27: It’s not very often we get the Patriots in a revenge game and they’re being severely underestimated for this one.

Jorge Gonzalez, Fox Sports Radio – Patriots 31-27: I can’t see Tom Brady have poor games back-to-back, also giving the coaching edge to Belichick.

[TheGame]

Cross-Sport Prop Moves
VegasInsider.com

The following are the opening lines with betting movement and current lines on the NHL, NBA and EPL vs. Super Bowl propositions from the LVH Super Book.

WHO WILL HAVE MORE PROPS:

NHL - Bruins at Capitals
ALEXANDER OVECHKIN (WAS) POINTS PK -155 (Bet down to -135)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) TOUCHDOWNS PK +135

NHL - Flyers at Rangers
MARIAN GABORIK (NYR) SHOTS ON GOALS +0.5 +105 (Bet down to +0.5 +120)
GIANTS PUNTS -0.5 -125
   
NHL - Jets at Canadiens
JETS SHOTS ON GOALS -1.5 -120 (Bet up to -1.5 -140)
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS +1.5 EVEN

NHL - Jets at Canadiens
CANADIENS GOALS PK -110 (Bet up to -125)
GIANTS+PATRIOTS TOTAL FIELD GOALS MADE PK -110

NHL - Jets at Canadiens
JETS+CANADIENS GOALS -0.5 -130 (Bet down to -0.5 -110)
ELI MANNING (NYG)+TOM BRADY (NE) TD PASSES +0.5 +110

NBA - Grizzlies at Celtics
RAY ALLEN (BOS) 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE +0.5 +130 (Bet down to +0.5 +115)
TOM BRADY (NE) TOUCHDOWN PASSES -0.5 -150

NBA - Grizzlies at Celtics
RUDY GAY (MEM) POINTS +6.5 -110 (Bet down to +6.5 +110)
GIANTS POINTS -6.5 -110

NBA - Raptors at Heat
LEBRON JAMES (MIA) FREE THROWS MADE +0.5 +120 (Bet down to +0.5 -110)
WES WELKER (NE) RECEPTIONS -0.5 -140

NBA - Raptors at Heat
CHRIS BOSH (MIA) POINTS +4.5 -110 (Bet down to +4.5 +110)
ELI MANNING (NYG) COMPLETIONS -4.5 -110

NBA - Raptors at Heat
RAPTORS/HEAT MARGIN OF VICTORY -2.5 -110 (Bet down to -2.5 EVEN)
DISTANCE OF FIRST TD PASS OF SB XLVI +2.5 -110

Barclays Premier League Soccer - Manchester United at Chelsea
MANCHESTER UNITED+CHELSEA GOALS +0.5 -110 (Bet up to +0.5 -125)
GIANTS+PATRIOTS FIELD GOALS MADE -0.5 -110

Barclays Premier League Soccer - Manchester United at Chelsea
WAYNE ROONEY (MAN UTD) GOALS PK +250 (Bet down to +230)
BRANDON JACOBS (NYG) TOUCHDOWNS PK -300