Marc Lawrence Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Florida Marlins
When the Marlins wrap up their three game visit with the Padres in San Diego this afternoon they will send ace right-hander Josh Johnson to the hill knowing he is 6-3 away in his career team starts during the month of August. He's also in terrific KW form with eight walks and 69 strikeouts in his last nine starts. With Johnson looking to avenge a 1-0 loss his only career start in this park, in which he did not allow an earned run, look for the Fish to improve to 13-4 on Sundays this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida.
Tom Freese Rangers at Angels
Prediction: Under
Angels starter Jered Weaver has an 18-4 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Los Angeles is 7-1 UNDER their last 8 games vs. lefty starters. The Angels are 5-1-2 UNDER their last 8 meetings with the Rangers and they are 33-15-5 UNDER their last 53 home starts with Weaver. Texas starter Cliff Lee has a 23-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 8-2-1 UNDER their last 11 games overall. Texas is 22-8-1 UNDER their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Rangers are 8-1-1 UNDER their last 10 games as favorites and they are 4-0 UNDER with Cliff Lee on the mound.
Steve Merril Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 9
Cleveland will call-up pitcher Jeanmar Gomez to make his second career start as the Indians wrap-up their series in Toronto with the Blue Jays. His first outing was outstanding as he went seven strong innings giving up two runs (zero earned) and five hits against Detroit. Gomez struck out four and walked one in the 7-2 victory. He'll face a Toronto team that struggled to get things going on Saturday. As a team, the Blue Jays have gone Under in 23 of their 40 daytime games where they hit around .245 as a unit. Gomez has impressed his manager who said "[Pitching coach Tim Belcher] said, 'That young man is not intimidated at all, he was in sync and remained calm." Toronto’s Jesse Litsch has pitched better than his 1-4 record indicates. The righty has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Toronto starters have gone 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 15 starts since the All-Star break. They have allowed two earned runs or less in each of the team's last eight games. Litsch made a start in Cleveland back in June giving up two runs and four hits in six innings pitched to the Indians; a 3-1 win for Cleveland. Travis Hafner (0-3), Trevor Crowe (0-3), and Matt LaPorta (0-1) all look for their first hits against Litsch. The Indians have scored only 25 runs in their last 11 games. They are hitting just over .225 as a team in their last eight games with five of those games going Under the total. We expect a low-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Indians and Blue Jays this afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are more like the ugly duclings here today. However they do fit a nice dog system and should have an easier time with B. Chen than they did with Z. Greinke. Chen for the Royals has hit a wall of late with a 7.94 era over his past 3 starts. The journey man lefty is more of a spot starter and has now become a regular rotation guy for KC. This alone shows why KC cant compete. The Orioles have K. Millwood on the mound. If anyone looks shot this season its Millwood. He has been hit hard all year. However he has had some sucess against KC. Over his last 3 starts vs the Royals he has pitched 17 innings allowing just 5 runs. In his last start he went 8 strong to get the win. Look for Balty to pull it out today.
Nick “The BookieKiller” ParsonsAtlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Atlanta Braves
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
Tommy Hanson heads to the hill for Atlanta; Hanson pitched well enough in his last outing to get a victory, but one costly error hurt him and he lost 3-0 to the Nats on Tuesday.
He walked no one and had eight K's; he's 8-7 on the year with a very respectable 3.99 ERA.
Hanson has not allowed more than three runs in his last five starts; he lost his last time out to the Reds in a horrible performance; expect him to be hungry to erase that memory with a solid showing today.
And remember, Atlanta is 20-14 (+4.8 units) in "day games".
In the other dugout: Edison Volquez gets the call for the home side; Volquez was the beneficiary of run support in his last outing and he needed it; he pitched 3 2/3's innings, gave up four runs on six hits (including two home runs); however the Reds plated 12 for him.
Over his last two outings he's allowed ten runs in six frames; he's 0-2 lifetime vs. Atlanta.
Very important to point out that Cincinnati is in fact 18-22 (-3.7 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: Atlanta remains atop the East, but its losing ground daily as Philadelphia surges; behind the superior pitcher and when coupled with the rest of the above factors, you may want to consider a second look at the ATLANTA BRAVES in this situation!
Jimmy Boyd 1 Unit on San Diego Padres +131
After dropping the first 2 games of this series, I expect San Diego to take care of business in Game 3. The Padres are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 6-0 in their last 6 Sunday games and 8-1 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series. Marlins ace Josh Johnson may be on the hill, but the Fish are only 2-5 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Garland has been strong at home all season, going 5-2 with a 2.39 ERA. Plus, he is 4-1 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of only 2.01 in 6 career starts against Florida. Take the Padres at a nice price.
SPORTS WAGERS CINCINNATI +1.11 over Atlanta
The Braves are really laboring these days with just six wins in its last 14 games. Tommy Hanson is a guy who also looks to be in a bit of trouble. When Hanson isn’t striking out a batter, he’s very hittable and it appears as though he’s fading. His 194 innings last season between the majors and Triple-A was the most of his career and he’s already up to 120 this year. His outings are getting shorter and he’s been rocked already on a few occasions. Hanson’s BAA is .270, which isn’t awful but it’s not so great either and the reason his ERA last season was so low was because of a strand rate of 80.3%. This season his strand rate is at a more normal 70.6% but his BABIP is .350, which confirms that when he’s not striking out guys he’s very hittable. The Reds crushed him already once this season (1.2 IP 8H 8ER) and that was in Atlanta and this park is a lot less forgiving. Edinson Volquez makes just his fourth start of the year. He’s been awful in his last two after a strong season debut and that is a bit of a concern. However, Volquez went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA in four rehab starts and really his only issue is control. In his season debut he was brilliant when he struck out nine and walked just two. In two subsequent starts he was falling behind hitters and walking too many people and that’s why he got into trouble. The focus here will be getting ahead in the count and should that come to pass Volquez will be fine because he has electric stuff and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Braves are laboring offensively these days. Play: Cincinnati +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Ross Benjamin Baltimore @ Kansas City
Play: Over 9.5
It shows how watered down starting pitching can be in baseball when you have a starter like Kevin Millwood who has a whopping 8.98 ERA and 2.15 over his last 10-starts yet maintains his spot in the rotation. The Kansas City starter Bruce Chen has seen his last 3-starts go over the total while he posted a large 7.94 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. The royals may not have a lot of power but thet are one of the best hitting teams in baseball as far as team batting average go. The Baltimore bullpen has posted a lofty 5.00 ERA as a staff over the last 10-games while the Royals bullpen has a monster 9.27 ERA over the same time span. These 2 teams have seen 31 of the last 43 games played at Kansas City go over the total. Play on this game to go over the total as my MLB free play of the day.
Dan BebeCOL (-140) vs CHC
Going back to the well!
Sometimes, we love that expression, and hopefully, this will be one of them.
Because of the chalk, this game fell to Free status, but I still definitely feel it's strong enough to make a play. The Rockies are starting to really hit the ball, they've scored a ton of runs in 3 straight games, and are piling up the hits as well. And on top of that, Carlos Silva is making a start in Coors Field, a pitcher that has absolutely been on the steady decline since starting the year so strongly.
I need to keep this note brief, but the Rockies got a key walkoff homer last night to pick up yet another win, and despite the Cubs waging a comeback, the Rockies prevailed, showing once again that motivation can be a huge factor in any game, even baseball.
Today, I believe that's even more important, as the Rockies hit righthanders well, and they're taking advantage of that home ballpark to the greatest extent.
Jorge De La Rosa has his game back together, and while most folks haven't completely taken note, I expect him to completely shut down the Cubs. His strikeout numbers are excellent since 2 poor starts when he came off the DL, and I expect that to continue in this one.
Look for the Rockies to wrap this series up in fine fashion against a lackluster Cubs club that can't pitch and can't hit, right now, and if not for a somewhat miraculous 3-run jack by Derrek Lee, would have been held to only 1 or 2 runs again, yesterday.
Gill Alexander DET (+135) vs BOS
Verlander has gone 6IP in 14 of his last 16 starts. He has a 3.24ERA in his last 5 outings. He has quality starts in 4 of his last 5 outings. Buchholz has a 3.08ERA at Fenway and opponents are hitting just .233 off of him this season overall. He has allowed 3ER or fewer in 10 of his last 11 outings. The Tigers have lost 14 of 18 and the Red Sox have dropped 5 of 7. Since all of that seems like a wash, we go to the metrics. Verlander has a 3.23FIP (14th best in MLB) and 3.96xFIP. Buchhholz has a 3.76FIP and a 4.25xFIP. His BABIP is .274 (somewhat lucky) and his E-F is at -1.05, the 8th worst discrep to the negative in baseball (if he had the requisite number of IP to qualify). But the key stat that seals the deal and makes the Tigers a must-play at +135? Verlander has a 2.69ERA this season when pitching on exactly 4 days' rest, the situation he finds himself in today. This line is about 20 cents off. Gotta roll with the value on the Tigers.
Sac Lawson MIL (-135) vs HOU
If there is one thing I think I know about Randy Wolf it's the fact that he bounces back strong. About a week ago he put together one of the worst starts of his career, but then backed it up nicely his last time out. Similarly if you look up and down his game logs over the years, you'll notice that the majority of the time when he gives up monster days to an opponent, his next three or four starts will be rock solid. I expect that to be the case today, especially against a team that he owns an ERA of around 3.0 against in his last 5 starts. Specifically, I think it'll be the young lineup that Houston throws out there today that will be the death of them. This Houston team did some overhauling, and is giving young guys great opportunities, but Wolf is a veteran, and a veteran always has an edge over recent call-ups.
On the other side, Wesley Wright is making a transition to starter after spending the majority of his major league career in the pen. He's faced the Cubs both times in his starts this year, and struggled quite a bit. Unfortunately for him, this Brewers team is a whole lot like the Cubs on the surface. They have plenty of power, and plenty of free swingers. It'll definitely take Wright a while to settle in, and with Oswalt out of town, I think his spot in the rotation is definitely one that could be permanent... At least for this season, which means a few good performances could earn him a job. That's pressure, and pressure that Wright certainly doesn't need during this transition.
Mr Vegas A's at White Sox
Neither the Brewers nor the Astros will contend for any post season play this year. And, as such the Astros parted with longtime 1B Lance Berkman, who they shipped off to the Yankees. The Astros took Saturday's game, 6-0, the second straight shutout that Houston has handed to the Brewers. In fact, the last three times these teams have met the Brewers have scored a total of one run! The Astros will start Wesley Wright today. Wright has pitched in eight games this year and has a 0-1 record and 4.66 ERA. Randy Wolf will start for the Brewers and is 7-9 with a 5.07 EA. Wolf has been more of a sheep in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 8.20 ERA. The Astros have a lineup filled with rookies and the Brewers just look like a team that has lost interest. I'm going with the UNDER here on Sunday.
